Aftershocks are ongoing and will continue for some time. We know it is stressful and we do our best to provide fast and verified information about these earthquakes.
We also here some earthquake predictions, we know it’s tempting to beleive them but please remember that, to date, scientists are not able to predict earthquakes, that is to say to say in advance and precisely when, where and how strong will be the next earthquake.
If you want to share your support you can use this thread
CALL FOR TESTIMONIES :
We are currently investigating if some people received an earthquake early warning from Google or other institutions (apps, earthquake network, etc) in link with the earthquakes.
If you did and you’re in a safe place, we’d be happy to hear your says.
Meanwhile we send or more sincere thoughts to all the affected people
I live in Izmir. I haven’t received any notification from Google or institutions whether any earthquake near Izmir or other far disasters. Many of us are helping government and charity donations. Also today government cut the internet, especially Twitter. There are lots of fake, dirty, false news on social media. But we are communicating on social media, because Disaster And Emergency Management Authority are down and slow(AFAD). Internet access is weak and there are not enough number of mobile base stations.
I note the earlier comments and links to fundraising sites. I wish the ongoing search and rescue and future recovery activities all the very best and hope that international and national funding and support is as generous as it needs to be.
I note also your comments about resisting making predictions and speculations, which I also accept and agree with. However, I do think that detailed observation and assessment of the quakes is very important and should be started straight away in the hope that insights might be gained and we make progress towards better preparedness and eventually even to prediction. Best wishes also to all the experts who undertake such important work.
Having said that, just a couple of comments on what I have seen so far:
Initial series of quakes was very tightly aligned along the main SSW-NNE fault system (is that the main plate boundary?). The quakes were spread along 100km+ section of the fault, multiple quakes in just one day, including the primary M7.8.
Later, the movement changed to a more E-W orientation, presumed to be a different fault system (and not a major plate boundary?). Again quakes spread along a long section of the fault (although more clustered / less close to a single fault line). Included the second M7+ quake.
Movement and quakes continue, but no further very large quakes, just many many smaller ones. Most quakes now occurring along the E-W fault not the original SSW-NNE one.
Pictures posted on-line (LinkedIn) show up to 3.5m lateral movement across roads and railway - presume that was the big quake, but don’t know how much surface movements (permanent, not shaking related) are associated with the aftershocks / swarms? (2) Post | Feed | LinkedIn
All fascinating and loads to investigate and think about more, tragic consequences acknowledged.
Seeing stress - and therefore aftershocks - migrate to linked faults is what you’d expect from the model of stress relief at the focus of a quake. It’s the same type of analysis that has been applied to the North Anatolian Fault (see links on North Anatolian Fault - Wikipedia, and the figure on that page proposing dispersal of 6m of displacement from the 1939 quake focal region towards the west and the Izmit 1999 EQ).
The shift you’re noting is consistent with the overall northwards motion of the Arabian microplate forcing the Anatolian microplate westwards.
I haven’t (yet) seen papers attempting to link that NAF series of quakes (including Izmit 1999) with increased loading on the W end of the Anatolian (Turkish) microplate and the Bodrum 2017 quake ; the movements are in the right sense, but direct accounting for the loads over several hundred km is … going to be hard. Well, hard to do rigorously and convincingly.
On the prediction front, I’m still betting the first mega-death quake would be on the Himalayan Front, with most of the mortality being in the Ganges basin. But I look at Istanbul and wonder if that might be a better call. It’s a big city, with less than vigorous enforcement of building codes, even last year. But the same is true in India. Hmmm.