The next quake after Samos Earthquake

On Oct 30,a magnitude 7 earthquake hit the north of Samos island.There were lots of casualities in İzmir,Turkey.If we look at the aftershocks there is a cluster of earthquakes on Ikeria fault and a lot of microquakes on the Chios-Çeşme fault zone. So,does it trigger another earthquake in a few months on the Chios-Çeşme Fault? I think the last one on this fault was in 1508 before 1509 İstanbul earthquake.

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Hi NimetEsra,
thank you for your message! Unfortunately, from the seismological standpoint, we cannot tell whether the Samos-Izmir event will trigger an event on the Chios-Çeşme fault or not. Any attempt to insinuate that the Samos-Izmir earthquake will specifically determine some other seismic events in the nearby area will only be a speculation.

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Thank you for your answer. Chios island is the most earthquake-prone area in the Aegean Sea. Do you have any knowledge about when the last rupture was on the Chios-Çeşme fault? How often does the fault rupture?

I’m afraid this question is a bit too specific for me as it concerns a very specific question. However, I guess there may be some researchs on that matter. Maybe you could make a research on Google scholar to check if that question has been studied already ?

It won’t answer the question about the next earthquake but still… some partners will do a webinar to explain the mission they’re doing after the Samos earthquake and how they use both field data and LastQuake data for damage and building assessment !
That may help understand how your contributions are valuable to us and to society as a whole.

:calendar: 17 december
:clock1: 18:00 GMT

more info : https://www.istructe.org/events/hq/2020-eefit-aegean-earthquake-mission/

image

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Here is one of the earthquake simulation images in supercomputing center ChEESE.

ChEESE had successfully run a simulation of the Mw 7 Samos-Izmir earthquake that affected Turkey in 2020 as part of it´s work on Pilot Demonstrator 1 “Urgent Seismic Simulations”. ChEESE researchers used waveform modelling software Salvus (provided by Mondaic) which is embedded in the project´s Urgent Computing (UC) Service prototype.

source: [Media | ChEESE - Centre of Excellence for Exascale Supercomputing in the area of ​​the Solid Earth](https://A successful simulation run of the 2020 Mw 7 Samos-Izmir earthquake 19 APRIL 2021)

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