The next quake after Samos Earthquake

On Oct 30,a magnitude 7 earthquake hit the north of Samos island.There were lots of casualities in İzmir,Turkey.If we look at the aftershocks there is a cluster of earthquakes on Ikeria fault and a lot of microquakes on the Chios-Çeşme fault zone. So,does it trigger another earthquake in a few months on the Chios-Çeşme Fault? I think the last one on this fault was in 1508 before 1509 İstanbul earthquake.


Hi NimetEsra,
thank you for your message! Unfortunately, from the seismological standpoint, we cannot tell whether the Samos-Izmir event will trigger an event on the Chios-Çeşme fault or not. Any attempt to insinuate that the Samos-Izmir earthquake will specifically determine some other seismic events in the nearby area will only be a speculation.


Thank you for your answer. Chios island is the most earthquake-prone area in the Aegean Sea. Do you have any knowledge about when the last rupture was on the Chios-Çeşme fault? How often does the fault rupture?

I’m afraid this question is a bit too specific for me as it concerns a very specific question. However, I guess there may be some researchs on that matter. Maybe you could make a research on Google scholar to check if that question has been studied already ?

It won’t answer the question about the next earthquake but still… some partners will do a webinar to explain the mission they’re doing after the Samos earthquake and how they use both field data and LastQuake data for damage and building assessment !
That may help understand how your contributions are valuable to us and to society as a whole.

:calendar: 17 december
:clock1: 18:00 GMT

more info :


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Here is one of the earthquake simulation images in supercomputing center ChEESE.

ChEESE had successfully run a simulation of the Mw 7 Samos-Izmir earthquake that affected Turkey in 2020 as part of it´s work on Pilot Demonstrator 1 “Urgent Seismic Simulations”. ChEESE researchers used waveform modelling software Salvus (provided by Mondaic) which is embedded in the project´s Urgent Computing (UC) Service prototype.

source: [Media | ChEESE - Centre of Excellence for Exascale Supercomputing in the area of ​​the Solid Earth](https://A successful simulation run of the 2020 Mw 7 Samos-Izmir earthquake 19 APRIL 2021)

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